The Math behind the Hurricanes playoff hopes
People have been talking about how improbable the Canes playoff hopes, but why? Because we have 6 teams to pass, right?
I think what's more important is the number of points it will take to get into the playoffs, NOT how many teams we have to pass to get there.
I put the current games played and point totals into a spreadsheed, and used that to project the final standings. I already suspected the 8th place team would have fewer points than normal because the eastern conference is weak this year. The point totals are skewed towards the west.
Anyway, here's the projections:
| Team | Games | Points | Projected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Washington | 64 | 94 | 120 |
| 2. | New Jersey | 62 | 79 | 104 |
| 3. | Pittsburgh | 64 | 80 | 103 |
| 4. | Buffalo | 62 | 75 | 99 |
| 5. | Ottawa | 65 | 76 | 96 |
| 6. | Philadelphia | 62 | 69 | 91 |
| 7. | Boston | 62 | 67 | 89 |
| 8. | Atlanta | 62 | 66 | 87 |
| 9. | NY Rangers | 64 | 66 | 85 |
| 10. | Montreal | 65 | 66 | 83 |
| 11. | Tampa Bay | 63 | 63 | 82 |
| 12. | Florida | 63 | 60 | 78 |
| 13. | NY Islanders | 64 | 60 | 77 |
| 14. | Carolina | 63 | 59 | 77 |
| 15. | Toronto | 63 | 50 | 65 |
We could get in the playoffs with 89 points. There are 19 games left. We currently have 59 points.
15-4 or 14-3-2 gets us there.
It's still improbable, but we are 12-1 in our last 13 games against eastern conference opponents (12-3 overall in our last 15).
5 of those final 19 are against Boston (2) and Atlanta (3). 2 more against Tampa Bay, 2 against the Candiens, and 1 more against the Panthers.
This weekend's games against the Panthers and Thrashers are *HUGE* (every game is HUGE, but we can afford to lose a few, as long as it's to a "top 6" or western conference team. We cannot afford to lose to Florida or Atlanta.
Go Canes!